scar nominations won’t be announced until February 11, but with the Golden Globes and various critics’ awards out of the way—and very few of the often-prescient guild awards nominations announced—this seems like the most sporting time to handicapping the race for Academy Award nominations, so here goes:


Picture


In recent years it’s been a grandiose, well-meaning, safe film that has taken the prize, and this year a trio of those seem to have locks on Best Picture nominations. From the onset of awards season, the throwback film adaptation of the successful musical Chicago has been touted as a sure thing. The film’s chances seemed curiously solidified by a sweep of the top comedy/musical categories at the Golden Globes—even though winners in that area haven’t always been rewarded when forced to compete with dramatic films.


The other big Golden Globe winner, The Hours, is another lock. It’s exactly the sort of literate, character-driven film that is either considered nuanced and truthful or ponderous and cloying depending on who you ask, but still gets nominated for awards. Martin Scorsese’s Gangs of New York--long rumored to be a problematic production with little to show for it—seems to have bested that tag and parlayed itself a nomination, as well.


Of the other possible contenders, About Schmidt has found an audience and a cadre of supporters and is best positioned to contend for Best Picture. Some see it as slight or sneering—and dark comedies don’t tend to fair well in the Oscar race—but the presence, if not the performance of the all-conquering Jack Nicholson has made this a viable candidate and a likely nominee.


In recent years, the fifth slot has typically gone to a well-marketed leftfield candidate such as Miramax’s Cider House Rules or Chocolat. This year, it’s Miramax’s traditional Oscar-season rivals, Dreamworks, that forgot to go off and make an award-baiting film and is now scrambling to create buzz for its populist could-be-contenders. Ebert and Roper would have preferred that the studio put its eggs in Minority Report’s basket, but instead Dreamworks is attempting to convince voters that Road to Perdition or Catch Me If You Can deserves their support. They’ll likely pass.Voters also seem set to ignore Spike Jonze’s divisive Adaptation (even if many didn’t find it convoluted and too-clever-by-half, poking fun at Hollywood never goes down well at these industry affairs) and Todd Haynes’ sumptuous Far From Heaven.


Instead, the fifth spot looks to be a David-and-Goliath tussle between The Two Towers and The Pianist. The second of three filmed adaptations of J.R.R. Tolkein’s Lord of the Rings trilogy has a solid pedigree: Last year’s Fellowship of the Ring earned 13 Oscar nominations. This installment is just as well received and successful, but it may suffer if voters consider honoring Peter Jackson’s work in consecutive years to be superfluous. The sequel is also heavier on action sequences and doesn’t have the cache or surprise of its predecessor, which--considering the precedent-setting way in which it was created (financed and filmed at the same time without knowing if the financial risk would pay off)--could have been rewarded as much for its gumption as its craft.


Instead, The Pianist, an exquisitely photographed epic could take the final spot. Roman Polanski could have detractors for his felonious past, but this deeply personal film is about a subject that Oscar likes to reward (the Holocaust) and offers a chance for the director to return to America and be welcomed back on an Academy Award stage just as Charlie Chaplin was after his longtime problems with U.S. immigration.


Actor


This field could be filled with up to four former winners, three of whom seem to be certainties. Jack Nicholson appears set to receive his 12th acting nomination—more than any other male performer—for his Golden Globe-winning performance in About Schmidt.


The other sure thing is Daniel Day-Lewis, who took time off from his work as a Florentine cobbler to portray Bill the Butcher in Scorsese’s historical epic. Even the film’s detractors praised the performance. Less certain but still a likely nominee is Michael Caine. If Caine is tabbed for his work in the still little-seen The Quiet American, he’ll join Nicholson as a nominee in each of the past five decades. Twice named best supporting actor, Caine hasn’t won a Best Actor award despite three tries. (The most recent was in 1984.)


Golden Globe nominee Leonardo DiCaprio (Catch Me If You Can), Oscar favorite Tom Hanks (Road to Perdition), and the much-beloved Robin Williams (One-Hour Photo) are all in the frame, but none of their films seem to have connected with enough people to earn them a groundswell of support.


Hugh Grant (About a Boy) did good work but his film is too frivolous. Adam Sandler (Punch-Drunk Love) did good work but his other films are too frivolous. Among the other no-hopers are National Board of Review winner Campbell Scott (Rodger Dodger) and newcomer Derek Luke (Antwone Fisher).


For the other two spots, there are three solid contenders. Richard Gere song-and-danced his way to a Golden Globe award, but he’s still not a sure thing--other recent comedy/musical winners such as Jim Carrey and Gene Hackman haven’t seen their work translated into Oscar nods, but their films weren’t as well-received as Chicago. Gere has some sentimentality on his side—he’s a longtime veteran who has never been nominated (not that he necessarily should have been)--but after his lengthy, baffling Golden Globe speech, time may have run out for him. If he gets in, it could be more an acknowledgement of the film than the actor himself.


Adaptation’s Nicolas Cage has won before, he’s in a comedy, and he lost to Gere at the Golden Globes but the academy is a sucker for dual roles, so he is a strong contender.


The Pianist’s Adrien Brody should also earn a spot. He carries the film—he’s in almost every scene—and could be the surprise. His performance is earning kudos and the film is peaking at the right time. If the academy rewards craft, he’ll leave Gere and Cage wrestling for the final spot—and unlike at the Golden Globes, my hunch is that the nod will go to Cage for delivering a truly lead performance.


Actress


Unlike many years, there is no problem filling out the ranks here. The Hours stars Nicole Kidman and Meryl Steeep are locks for their work. Kidman, the “hot” actress in Hollywood at the moment even (ooh) made herself ugly in her role, so that makes her the frontrunner.


The third member of that film’s troika, Julianne Moore, will be deservedly honored for her sublime performance as a housewife battling with domestic problems and community prejudice in Far From Heaven.


Renee Zellwegger was nominated last year as Bridget Jones, so she should have no problem this year as Roxie Hart. She’ll be helped because her co-star, Catherine Zeta-Jones, is being pushed as a supporting performer.


If there is strength here at the top, there isn’t much depth. My Big Fat Greek Wedding’s perennial underdog, Nia Vardalos, could get an invite for her writing but will doubtfully garner one for her acting. Other outsiders such as Jennifer Aniston (The Good Girl), Catherine Keener (Lovely and Amazing), and Boston Film Critics Award winner Maggie Gyllenhaal (Secretary) will have to be content with their Independent Spirit Awards nominations.


The final spot will go to Unfaithful’s Diane Lane or Frida’s Selma Hayek. The former is in the frame after being honored by the New York Critics group; the latter for using a pet project to prove she’s more than a pretty face. Lane seems to have the edge.


Supporting Actor


This is traditionally one of the most crowded fields of contenders, and this year is no exception. Adaptation’s Chris Cooper has earned many of the critics’ awards (LA, National Board) as well as the Golden Globes and enters the race as the man to beat and the only sure nominee. Eight-time Best Actor nominee Paul Newman seems poised to get his first supporting actor nomination, thanks to his work in Road to Perdition. After that, things are a bit muddled.


The critics awards not won by Cooper were spread among numerous performers. The only critics award-winner without hope of a nod is Boston Critics winner for Alan Arkin (Thirteen Conversations About One Thing). He’ll compete against Narc’s Ray Liotta in the Independent Spirit Awards.


The National Society of Film Critics pegged Christopher Walken for his role as Leo’s dad in Catch Me If You Can. The New York and Chicago film critics selected Golden Globe nominee Dennis Quaid, who seems to have crowded his lesser-known Far From Heaven counterpart, Dennis Haysbert, out of competition.


Splitting screen time has also eliminated any chance that 25th Hour’s Philip Seymour Hoffman or Barry Pepper would have had. And despite a charming campaign, Gollum (Andy Serkis) will be on the sidelines, along with his Two Towers co-star Viggo Mortenson.


Multiple supporting roles helped winner Jim Broadbent last year, and could do the same for John C. Reilly: The character actor did his usual solid work in The Good Girl, Gangs of New York, The Hours, and Chicago, and could be honored for the latter.


Reilly’s The Hours co-star, three-time nominee Ed Harris, is well liked and could get caught up in that film’s momentum, despite his small role. Playing second-fiddle in biopics could benefit Frida’s Alfred Molina or Auto Focus’s two-time nominee Willem Dafoe, each of whom are potential darkhorses.Harris, Walken, Quaid, and Reilly are the most likely to fill out the final three spots, and I’ll guess that Reilly will be the disappointed party.


Supporting Actress


This category has offered the biggest recent surprises (Marcia Gay Harden? Angeline Joile? Mira Sorvino? Marisa Tomei?!), and may once again. Despite the strong competition for Actress, it’s a thin crop and anything could happen.The closest to sure things here are Golden Globe winner Meryl Streep (Adaptaion) and Kathy Bates (About Schmidt), each of whom is a former Oscar winner.


After that, it’s anyone’s guess. Golden Globe nominee Queen Latifah’s small, crowd-pleasing role in Chicago will be hurt by being in competition with co-star Catherine Zeta-Jones, a probable nominee. The beneficiary could be The Hours’s Julianne Moore, who was left out of the competition for the Golden Globes—perhaps those voters felt her Best Actress nomination was reward enough, which could damage her Supporting Actress Oscar chances, too. Moore’s Far From Heaven co-star Patricia Clarkson earned praise from the typically high-minded critics groups in New York and the National Board, but the film itself is underappreciated and this sort of acting is built on restraint and subtlety, neither of which is often rewarded. More liked was Gangs of New York but despite her Golden Globe nod, Cameron Diaz gave a very average performance.


A large pool of outsiders could compete with for the final two spots with Latifah, Moore, Clarkson, and Diaz. Of them, we can eliminate Parker Posey (Personal Velocity) and Emily Mortimer (Lovely and Amazing), who were in little-seen films, and Tovah Feldshuh (Kissing Jessica Stein) and Lainie Kazan My Big Fat Greek Wedding), whose scene-stealing roles in ethnic comedies won’t be enough to earn nominations.


Instead, three other outsiders could grab one of the final spots. Perennial favorite Susan Sarandon earned a Golden Globe nod for Igby Goes Down, but the film doesn’t have much appeal to older voters. Sunshine State’s Edie Falco garnered praise and the Los Angeles Critics award—and because of the unique respect given to her day job, The Sopranos, may not be viewed as a mere TV actress—but few people saw her film.


Unlike those other two, previous nominee and Boston Critics winner Toni Collette (About a Boy) starred in a major-studio film, but it was an early summer comedy. Collette’s appearance in the The Hours could remind voters of her work earlier in the year. Rather than just stick with the safe picks, I’ll perhaps recklessly go out on a limb and predict that they do, and that Collette joins Moore as the final nominees at the expense of Clarkson, Latifah, and Diaz.